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Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Felgueiras 1932

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Chaves

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.7%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-112.9%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.6%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Draw 26.9% 31.7% 3.15 -9.2%

Away win 26.8% 32.8% 3.05 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

Away O1.5 27.2% 33.9% 2.95 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Felgueiras 19321.3

Chaves1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FELGUEIRAS 1932 · PPG 1.40

CHAVES · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Felgueiras 1932 (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.2%

Chaves (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Felgueiras 1932 face Chaves in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Felgueiras 1932 a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Chaves 27%, so Felgueiras 1932 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.0 for Chaves (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Felgueiras 1932 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.14 for Chaves. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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