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Leixoes vs Lusitania FC Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Leixoes

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lusitania FC

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.1%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.0%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 48.1% 2.08 -22.0%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

Away win 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 54.1% 1.85 +9.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leixoes1.6

Lusitania FC1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIXOES · PPG 1.38

LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Leixoes (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -22.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.6%

Lusitania FC (A) 36.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leixoes face Lusitania FC in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixoes a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Lusitania FC 37%, so Leixoes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leixoes and 1.5 for Lusitania FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixoes are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Lusitania FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Leixoes vs Lusitania FC Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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