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Torreense vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Torreense

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vizela

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.3%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 50.5% 1.98 -12.3%

Draw 26.7% 30.8% 3.25 -7.9%

Away win 29.0% 27.8% 3.60 +2.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Away O1.5 30.4% 30.3% 3.30 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense1.4

Vizela1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE · PPG 1.62

VIZELA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torreense (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -12.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.9%

Vizela (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense face Vizela in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Vizela 29%, so Torreense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Torreense and 1.0 for Vizela (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.17 for Vizela. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Torreense vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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