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Farense vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:00

Farense

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Felgueiras 1932

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.8%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Draw 27.9% 34.7% 2.88 -11.8%

Away win 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 43.5% 2.30 -0.9%

Over 3.5 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -6.2%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 42.0% 2.38 -11.5%

Away O1.5 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1✓ 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farense1.3

Felgueiras 19320.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FARENSE · PPG 1.54

FELGUEIRAS 1932 · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Farense (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.8%

Felgueiras 1932 (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farense face Felgueiras 1932 in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farense a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Felgueiras 1932 24%, so Farense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Farense and 0.9 for Felgueiras 1932 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farense are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.21 for Felgueiras 1932. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Farense vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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