Today / Portugal - Segunda Liga / Penafiel vs Sporting CP B

Penafiel vs Sporting CP B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Penafiel

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-114.8%0-28.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.4%2-16.1%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 40.8% 2.45 -18.4%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 38.9% 38.2% 2.62 +1.9%

Over 2.5 38.0% 44.4% 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

A 39% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penafiel0.9

Sporting CP B1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.27

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.61

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Penafiel (H) 28.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.4%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

Sporting CP B (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penafiel face Sporting CP B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penafiel a 28% chance, the draw 33% and Sporting CP B 39%, so Sporting CP B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Penafiel and 1.1 for Sporting CP B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penafiel are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.61 for Sporting CP B. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Penafiel vs Sporting CP B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions