Leagues / PARAGUAY / Division Profesional - Apertura
Division Profesional - Apertura
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 34 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
38.2%
1X2
13/34
58.8%
O/U 2.5
20/34
47.1%
BTTS
16/34
50.0%
Exact score
17/34
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
20
Settled
60.0%
Hit rate
12/20
1.85
Avg odds
+9.0%
ROI
+1.8u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.86 · +13.4% ROI
BTTS · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.79 · +18.7% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · +10.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-12.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+51.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
13
Bets
69%
Hit
+19.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 9 PICKS · 5 HIT · 4 MISS
24 MAY S. Ameliano vs S. Trinidense — NO PICK 1–2 —24 MAY Nacional vs Libertad BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT24 MAY Cerro Porteno vs Rubio Nu Home -22% 2–0 HIT23 MAY S. Luqueno vs Olimpia — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY D. Recoleta vs Guarani BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT22 MAY 2 de Mayo vs San Lorenzo Home -14% 0–1 MISS17 MAY San Lorenzo vs S. Luqueno BTTS -12% 0–0 MISS16 MAY Guarani vs S. Ameliano — NO PICK 1–0 —15 MAY Olimpia vs D. Recoleta Home -28% 3–2 HIT15 MAY S. Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno — NO PICK 3–1 —15 MAY Rubio Nu vs Nacional — NO PICK 1–1 —14 MAY Libertad vs 2 de Mayo Over 2.5 +19% 0–0 MISS11 MAY S. Ameliano vs D. Recoleta BTTS -11% 3–2 HIT11 MAY Cerro Porteno vs Guarani — NO PICK 0–0 —10 MAY San Lorenzo vs Olimpia Away -2% 1–0 MISS