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Cerro Porteno vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 20 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 23:00

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.89 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Guarani

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.9%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.4%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 54.9% 1.82 -9.7%

Draw 27.1% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

Away win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Over 2.5 46.0% 46.5% 2.15 -1.1%

Over 3.5 19.6% 26.0% 3.85 -14.7%

BTTS 49.7% 52.6% 1.90 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.7%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–0✓ 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.4

Guarani0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.89

GUARANI · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=49.6%

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -9.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.5%

Guarani (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face Guarani in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Guarani 23%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cerro Porteno and 0.9 for Guarani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Guarani. This match finished 0-0.

Cerro Porteno vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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