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S. Luqueno vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

S. Luqueno

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Olimpia

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-114.8%0-211.1%0-35.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.3%2-14.9%2-23.7%2-31.8%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 36.0% 2.78 -19.0%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Away win 47.0% 40.8% 2.45 +15.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 20.4% 27.0% 3.70 -14.7%

BTTS 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.2%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 14.8%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Luqueno0.8

Olimpia1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

S. LUQUENO · PPG 1.00

OLIMPIA · PPG 1.90

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.90) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Luqueno (H) 24.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -19.0%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Olimpia (A) 47.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Luqueno face Olimpia in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Luqueno a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Olimpia 47%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for S. Luqueno and 1.5 for Olimpia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Luqueno are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.90 for Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-2.

S. Luqueno vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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