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Cerro Porteno vs Rubio Nu Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 20:00

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rubio Nu

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-18.5%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.4%1-111.2%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.4%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 65.8% 1.52 -22.0%

Draw 27.3% 27.4% 3.65 -0.2%

Away win 21.3% 16.1% 6.20 +19.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 12.0% 27.0% 3.70 -33.4%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.4%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 2–0✓ 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.3

Rubio Nu0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.80

RUBIO NU · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -22.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.2%

Rubio Nu (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face Rubio Nu in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Rubio Nu 21%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cerro Porteno and 0.5 for Rubio Nu (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Rubio Nu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Cerro Porteno vs Rubio Nu Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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