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Guarani vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 20:15

Guarani

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.8%0-26.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.2%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 42.0% 2.38 -15.8%

Draw 33.2% 32.8% 3.05 +1.3%

Away win 31.4% 34.0% 2.94 -7.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Over 3.5 13.2% 23.1% 4.33 -25.7%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0✓ 14.2%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani1.0

S. Ameliano1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI · PPG 1.70

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Guarani (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +1.3%

S. Ameliano (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face S. Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 35% chance, the draw 33% and S. Ameliano 31%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guarani and 1.0 for S. Ameliano (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.70 for S. Ameliano. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Guarani vs S. Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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