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S. Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 20:00

S. Trinidense

PPG 1.90 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-113.2%0-27.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-16.9%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 32.3% 3.10 +10.7%

Draw 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Away win 34.4% 44.2% 2.26 -22.3%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 16.3% 25.3% 3.95 -21.4%

BTTS 49.7% 54.6% 1.83 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Trinidense1.0

Cerro Porteno1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 1.90

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.90), Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

S. Trinidense (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.7%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Cerro Porteno (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Trinidense face Cerro Porteno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Trinidense a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Cerro Porteno 34%, so S. Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for S. Trinidense and 1.1 for Cerro Porteno (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Trinidense are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.89 for Cerro Porteno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-1.

S. Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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