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Rubio Nu vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 20:00

Rubio Nu

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nacional

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-117.6%0-29.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.0%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.6%2-14.8%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 26.3% 3.80 +7.5%

Draw 34.0% 32.3% 3.10 +5.4%

Away win 36.4% 50.5% 1.98 -27.9%

Over 2.5 34.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

Over 3.5 10.5% 22.2% 4.50 -31.6%

BTTS 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 17.6%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rubio Nu0.7

Nacional1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RUBIO NU · PPG 1.10

NACIONAL · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Rubio Nu (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +7.5%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.4%

Nacional (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rubio Nu face Nacional in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rubio Nu a 30% chance, the draw 34% and Nacional 36%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Rubio Nu and 1.0 for Nacional (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rubio Nu are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.40 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Rubio Nu vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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