Today / Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura / S. Ameliano vs D. Recoleta

S. Ameliano vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 20 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 20:45

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Recoleta

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-19.4%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-112.8%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.7%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 47.2% 2.12 -0.4%

Draw 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -4.2%

Away win 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Over 2.5 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Over 3.5 20.0% 29.9% 3.35 -19.8%

BTTS 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Ameliano1.4

D. Recoleta0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.44

D. RECOLETA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

S. Ameliano (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -0.4%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.2%

D. Recoleta (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Ameliano face D. Recoleta in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Ameliano a 47% chance, the draw 29% and D. Recoleta 24%, so S. Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for S. Ameliano and 0.9 for D. Recoleta (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Ameliano are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for D. Recoleta. This match finished 3-2.

S. Ameliano vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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