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S. Ameliano vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 20:00

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

S. Trinidense

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.8%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-113.1%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-18.0%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 38.8% 2.58 +17.1%

Draw 29.5% 31.7% 3.15 -4.3%

Away win 25.0% 38.2% 2.62 -20.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 15.7% 25.3% 3.95 -22.8%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Ameliano1.2

S. Trinidense0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.60

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Win probability 1X2

S. Ameliano (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +17.1%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.3%

S. Trinidense (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Ameliano face S. Trinidense in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Ameliano a 45% chance, the draw 30% and S. Trinidense 25%, so S. Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for S. Ameliano and 0.9 for S. Trinidense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Ameliano are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.70 for S. Trinidense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-2.

S. Ameliano vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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