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Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura logo Paraguay flag Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Apertura - 22 Estadio Arsenio Erico· Asuncion Sunday, May 24, 2026 20:00
Nacional logo Nacional PPG 2.10
2-1 HIT CS4
Libertad logo Libertad PPG 1.00
Over2.5· -0.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.6%
Odds: 2.06 EV: -6.1%
Draw 28.0%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -5.4%
Away 26.4%
Odds: 3.40 EV: -6.1%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 2.10 -0.0%
Over 3.5 23.2% Odds: 3.70 -8.5%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.80 -7.1%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Nacional
1.37
Libertad
1.08

Model Suggestion

BTTS -7.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet.

League Track Record

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%
O2.5/Under 59%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 16.7%
Bet Hit 56% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=45.6%

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