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Nacional vs Libertad Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 20:00

Nacional

PPG 2.10 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Libertad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.3%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.8%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 48.5% 2.06 -6.1%

Draw 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Away win 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -6.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -8.5%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1✓ 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.4

Libertad1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 2.10

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -6.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Libertad (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Libertad in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Libertad 26%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nacional and 1.1 for Libertad (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Libertad. This match finished 2-1.

Nacional vs Libertad Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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