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San Lorenzo vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 20 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:45

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Olimpia

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-115.2%0-216.0%0-311.2%0-4+9.6%1 1-03.8%1-18.0%1-28.4%1-35.9%1-4+5.0%2 2-01.0%2-12.1%2-22.2%2-31.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 17.5% 5.70 -17.9%

Draw 23.7% 26.0% 3.85 -5.3%

Away win 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Over 2.5 52.8% 51.8% 1.93 +1.9%

Over 3.5 26.9% 29.9% 3.35 -5.9%

BTTS 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob48.2%

A 64% / xG 0.5-2.1 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.0%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 0–3 11.2%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo0.5

Olimpia2.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.67

OLIMPIA · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 12.3%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.3%

Olimpia (A) 64.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Olimpia in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 12% chance, the draw 24% and Olimpia 64%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for San Lorenzo and 2.1 for Olimpia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.11 for Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-0.

San Lorenzo vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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