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Olimpia vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:30

Olimpia

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Recoleta

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.5%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.6%1-111.2%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.5%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 73.0% 1.37 -28.1%

Draw 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +4.3%

Away win 22.0% 12.7% 7.90 +44.3%

Over 2.5 48.2% 58.8% 1.70 -18.1%

Over 3.5 25.0% 36.4% 2.75 -18.8%

BTTS 52.1% 54.1% 1.85 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.7

D. Recoleta0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 2.33

D. RECOLETA · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -28.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.3%

D. Recoleta (A) 22.0%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +44.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face D. Recoleta in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 53% chance, the draw 26% and D. Recoleta 22%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Olimpia and 0.8 for D. Recoleta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.70 for D. Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Olimpia vs D. Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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