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2 de Mayo vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 21:00

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.8%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.5%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 59.5% 1.68 -14.0%

Draw 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Away win 22.0% 20.4% 4.90 +4.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% 27.0% 3.70 -22.7%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

2 de Mayo1.4

San Lorenzo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.00

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

2 de Mayo (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -14.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

San Lorenzo (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

2 de Mayo face San Lorenzo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 2 de Mayo a 51% chance, the draw 27% and San Lorenzo 22%, so 2 de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for 2 de Mayo and 0.7 for San Lorenzo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 2 de Mayo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 0-1.

2 de Mayo vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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