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D. Recoleta vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 22 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 21:15

D. Recoleta

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guarani

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.2%0-26.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.6%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 32.8% 3.05 +10.7%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Away win 37.2% 45.0% 2.22 -17.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Over 3.5 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1✓ 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Recoleta1.3

Guarani1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. RECOLETA · PPG 1.80

GUARANI · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=36.3%

Win probability 1X2

D. Recoleta (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Guarani (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Recoleta face Guarani in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Recoleta a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Guarani 37%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for D. Recoleta and 1.4 for Guarani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Recoleta are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.90 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Recoleta vs Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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