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Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Saturday, May 23, 2026 21:15 
D. Recoleta PPG 1.80 
Guarani PPG 0.90
Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Saturday, May 23, 2026 21:15 D. Recoleta PPG 1.802-1 HIT CS4
Guarani PPG 0.90Home· +10.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 2.05 +7.8%
Over 3.5 29.2% Odds: 3.70 +4.8%
BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.77 -3.4%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-2 ✘
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 2-1 ✔
5th 0-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
D. Recoleta 1.31
Guarani 1.42
Model Suggestion
BTTS -3.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+10.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+10.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 34 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 38%
O2.5/Under 59%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 16.7%
Bet Hit 56% (9 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=36.3%