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San Lorenzo vs S. Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 20:00

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.90 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

S. Luqueno

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-113.4%0-29.8%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.9%2-15.7%2-24.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.3%

Draw 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -6.8%

Away win 44.7% 47.6% 2.10 -6.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Over 3.5 22.1% 29.9% 3.35 -15.6%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 0–0✓ 9.1%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo0.9

S. Luqueno1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.90

S. LUQUENO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.90), Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.8%

S. Luqueno (A) 44.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face S. Luqueno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 28% chance, the draw 28% and S. Luqueno 45%, so S. Luqueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for San Lorenzo and 1.5 for S. Luqueno (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.90 for S. Luqueno. This match finished 0-0.

San Lorenzo vs S. Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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