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Libertad vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 21 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 20:00

Libertad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.3%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-19.1%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-16.9%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 56.2% 1.78 +5.5%

Draw 22.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.8%

Away win 18.2% 23.3% 4.30 -13.0%

Over 2.5 59.4% 50.0% 2.00 +18.8%

Over 3.5 34.1% 28.2% 3.55 +21.1%

BTTS 52.1% 54.6% 1.83 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad2.1

2 de Mayo0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 2.00

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV +5.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.8%

2 de Mayo (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 59% chance, the draw 23% and 2 de Mayo 18%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Libertad and 0.8 for 2 de Mayo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.10 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Libertad vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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