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Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:45

Sparta Rotterdam

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDL ·

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Utrecht

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 39.4% 2.54 +29.3%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 24.5% 39.4% 2.54 -22.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Away O1.5 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Rotterdam1.7

Utrecht1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA ROTTERDAM · PPG 1.17

UTRECHT · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Rotterdam (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +29.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Utrecht (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam face Utrecht in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Utrecht 25%, so Sparta Rotterdam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.1 for Utrecht (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.07 for Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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