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Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:45

Ajax

PPG 1.72 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heerenveen

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.7%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.6%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.2%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 69.4% 1.44 -21.9%

Draw 23.2% 20.4% 4.90 +8.2%

Away win 22.6% 17.2% 5.80 +18.6%

Over 2.5 56.6% 72.5% 1.38 -21.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 50.0% 2.00 -32.8%

BTTS 54.5% 65.4% 1.53 -16.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 74.1% 1.35 -26.3%

Away O1.5 27.0% 34.5% 2.90 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajax1.9

Heerenveen1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AJAX · PPG 1.72

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ajax (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -21.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +8.2%

Heerenveen (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajax face Heerenveen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajax a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Heerenveen 23%, so Ajax are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ajax and 1.0 for Heerenveen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajax are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.29 for Heerenveen.

Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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