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Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:45

Utrecht

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.6%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.1%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 37.7% 2.65 +26.4%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 28.0% 42.0% 2.38 -20.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 63.7% 1.57 -15.2%

Over 3.5 31.8% 41.7% 2.40 -23.7%

BTTS 54.5% 67.6% 1.48 -19.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 52.4% 1.91 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utrecht1.6

AZ Alkmaar1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UTRECHT · PPG 1.82

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Utrecht (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +26.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

AZ Alkmaar (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utrecht face AZ Alkmaar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utrecht a 48% chance, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 28%, so Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Utrecht and 1.2 for AZ Alkmaar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utrecht are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.33 for AZ Alkmaar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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