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Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Sparta Rotterdam

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDL ·

UPCOMING

PEC Zwolle

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.6%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.5%1-19.9%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-15.2%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 55.9% 1.79 -20.7%

Draw 23.4% 25.3% 3.95 -4.5%

Away win 32.3% 26.0% 3.85 +24.4%

Over 2.5 64.7% 69.0% 1.45 -6.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 64.5% 1.55 -22.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Rotterdam1.8

PEC Zwolle1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA ROTTERDAM · PPG 1.14

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Rotterdam (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -20.7%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.5%

PEC Zwolle (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam face PEC Zwolle in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 44% chance, the draw 23% and PEC Zwolle 32%, so Sparta Rotterdam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.5 for PEC Zwolle (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.05 for PEC Zwolle. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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