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PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

PEC Zwolle

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.4%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.3%1-110.3%1-28.4%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.7%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 22.7% 4.40 +57.5%

Draw 23.9% 23.3% 4.30 +1.7%

Away win 40.2% 61.0% 1.64 -34.1%

Over 2.5 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Over 3.5 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

BTTS 60.8% 69.0% 1.45 -11.8%

Home O1.5 48.3% 39.2% 2.55 +23.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 67.6% 1.48 -29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.8%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEC Zwolle1.6

NEC Nijmegen1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 1.33

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PEC Zwolle (H) 35.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +57.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +1.7%

NEC Nijmegen (A) 40.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEC Zwolle face NEC Nijmegen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEC Zwolle a 36% chance, the draw 24% and NEC Nijmegen 40%, so NEC Nijmegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PEC Zwolle and 1.6 for NEC Nijmegen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.80 for NEC Nijmegen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-3.

PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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