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Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Excelsior

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sparta Rotterdam

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.6%1-110.0%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 42.4% 2.36 +16.4%

Draw 22.7% 26.7% 3.75 -8.9%

Away win 28.0% 38.2% 2.62 -16.0%

Over 2.5 62.0% 64.5% 1.55 -3.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.6% 2.35 -7.6%

BTTS 60.8% 69.0% 1.45 -11.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 52.6% 1.90 +7.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 50.0% 2.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior1.9

Sparta Rotterdam1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.01

SPARTA ROTTERDAM · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +16.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.9%

Sparta Rotterdam (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior face Sparta Rotterdam in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta Rotterdam 28%, so Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Excelsior and 1.3 for Sparta Rotterdam (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.58 for Sparta Rotterdam. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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