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AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:45

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

GO Ahead Eagles

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.4%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.3%1-19.2%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 71.9% 1.39 -26.2%

Draw 22.3% 19.6% 5.10 +8.2%

Away win 24.7% 15.4% 6.50 +36.3%

Over 2.5 64.2% 72.5% 1.38 -11.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 50.0% 2.00 -13.6%

BTTS 62.3% 64.5% 1.55 -3.4%

Home O1.5 59.6% 75.2% 1.33 -20.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ Alkmaar2.1

GO Ahead Eagles1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.92

GO AHEAD EAGLES · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AZ Alkmaar (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -26.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +8.2%

GO Ahead Eagles (A) 24.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ Alkmaar face GO Ahead Eagles in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance, the draw 22% and GO Ahead Eagles 25%, so AZ Alkmaar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.3 for GO Ahead Eagles (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.02 for GO Ahead Eagles. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 5-2.

AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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