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Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.8%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.2%1-110.0%1-28.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.9%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 21.5% 4.65 +84.6%

Draw 24.0% 23.3% 4.30 +1.9%

Away win 36.3% 62.1% 1.61 -41.6%

Over 2.5 62.6% 67.6% 1.48 -7.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 37.0% 2.70 +31.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 67.6% 1.48 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortuna Sittard1.7

AZ Alkmaar1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 1.73

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.61

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fortuna Sittard (H) 39.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +84.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +1.9%

AZ Alkmaar (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortuna Sittard face AZ Alkmaar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortuna Sittard a 40% chance, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 36%, so Fortuna Sittard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.6 for AZ Alkmaar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.61 for AZ Alkmaar. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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