Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie / Twente vs PEC Zwolle

Twente vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:30

Twente

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

PEC Zwolle

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.0%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-18.9%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.2%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.7%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 81.3% 1.23 -25.3%

Draw 20.3% 16.9% 5.90 +11.9%

Away win 19.0% 9.1% 11.00 +65.4%

Over 2.5 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Over 3.5 38.6% 54.1% 1.85 -28.6%

BTTS 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 82.0% 1.22 -23.1%

Away O1.5 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Twente2.2

PEC Zwolle0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TWENTE · PPG 1.75

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Twente (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -25.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +11.9%

PEC Zwolle (A) 19.0%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +65.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Twente face PEC Zwolle in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Twente a 61% chance, the draw 20% and PEC Zwolle 19%, so Twente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Twente and 0.9 for PEC Zwolle (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Twente are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.87 for PEC Zwolle. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.8%.

Twente vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Predictions