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Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Heerenveen

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLD ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

PEC Zwolle

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.8%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.7%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-18.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 62.1% 1.61 +3.4%

Draw 20.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

Away win 15.2% 22.0% 4.55 -18.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Over 3.5 38.3% 47.6% 2.10 -19.6%

BTTS 53.8% 67.6% 1.48 -20.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Away O1.5 25.0% 39.2% 2.55 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen2.4

PEC Zwolle0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.89

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 0.72

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.72 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV +3.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.5%

PEC Zwolle (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen face PEC Zwolle in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen a 64% chance, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 15%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Heerenveen and 0.9 for PEC Zwolle (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.72 for PEC Zwolle. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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