Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie / PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:30

PSV Eindhoven

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Groningen

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.8%0-22.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.5%1-16.9%1-25.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.6%3-17.0%3-25.4%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.8%4+-26.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 75.2% 1.33 -32.3%

Draw 21.6% 20.0% 5.00 +4.8%

Away win 27.5% 14.3% 7.00 +55.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 30.8% 3.25 +57.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSV Eindhoven2.5

Groningen1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PSV EINDHOVEN · PPG 1.91

GRONINGEN · PPG 1.63

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PSV Eindhoven (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -32.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.8%

Groningen (A) 27.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +55.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSV Eindhoven face Groningen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Groningen 28%, so PSV Eindhoven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.5 for Groningen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSV Eindhoven are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.63 for Groningen. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +63.4%. This match finished 5-1.

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Predictions