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Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Excelsior

PPG 1.21 · HOME

UPCOMING

PSV Eindhoven

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.9%0-24.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.2%1-19.0%1-27.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.0%3-15.1%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 21.7% 4.60 +101.5%

Draw 22.1% 22.7% 4.40 -1.7%

Away win 34.1% 62.5% 1.60 -45.4%

Over 2.5 64.9% 74.1% 1.35 -12.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 54.1% 1.85 -20.6%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 42.6% 2.35 +28.3%

Away O1.5 47.7% 72.5% 1.38 -34.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior1.8

PSV Eindhoven1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.21

PSV EINDHOVEN · PPG 2.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior (H) 43.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +101.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.7%

PSV Eindhoven (A) 34.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior face PSV Eindhoven in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior a 44% chance, the draw 22% and PSV Eindhoven 34%, so Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Excelsior and 1.7 for PSV Eindhoven (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.17 for PSV Eindhoven. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +74.4%.

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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