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Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Groningen

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fortuna Sittard

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.1%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.0%1-18.9%1-25.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-16.9%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.1%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 65.8% 1.52 -20.3%

Draw 22.0% 22.7% 4.40 -1.9%

Away win 25.6% 18.5% 5.40 +22.9%

Over 2.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

BTTS 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Home O1.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Groningen2.2

Fortuna Sittard1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GRONINGEN · PPG 1.73

FORTUNA SITTARD · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Groningen (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -20.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.9%

Fortuna Sittard (A) 25.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Groningen face Fortuna Sittard in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Groningen a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Fortuna Sittard 26%, so Groningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Groningen and 1.3 for Fortuna Sittard (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Groningen are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.05 for Fortuna Sittard. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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