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Telstar vs Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:45

Telstar

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ajax

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.1%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.7%1-110.3%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 20.0% 5.00 +99.5%

Draw 24.4% 22.7% 4.40 +4.4%

Away win 35.7% 66.7% 1.50 -46.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 36.4% 2.75 +34.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 71.4% 1.40 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telstar1.7

Ajax1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TELSTAR · PPG 1.08

AJAX · PPG 1.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Telstar (H) 39.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +99.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.4%

Ajax (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -46.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telstar face Ajax in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telstar a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Ajax 36%, so Telstar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Telstar and 1.5 for Ajax (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telstar are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.73 for Ajax. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +115.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Telstar vs Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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