Leagues / NETHERLANDS / Derde Divisie - Sunday

Derde Divisie - Sunday

NETHERLANDS · 36 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 23 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 36 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

50.0%

1X2

18/36

66.7%

O/U 2.5

24/36

61.1%

BTTS

22/36

33.3%

Exact score

12/36

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

50.0%

Hit rate

7/14

1.54

Avg odds

-21.2%

ROI

-3.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=10 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -24.1% ROI

BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.43 · -52.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · +100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+53.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+7.8%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

29%

Hit

-56.7%

ROI

Match log

36 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 11 HIT · 4 MISS

23 MAY Noordwijk vs TOGB Over 2.5 1–2 HIT 23 MAY Zwaluwen vs Blauw Geel 38 Over 2.5 3–0 HIT 23 MAY Groene Ster vs ASWH Over 2.5 -2% 3–1 HIT 23 MAY GOES vs Gemert Over 2.5 0–0 MISS 23 MAY UNA vs Meerssen Over 2.5 1–2 HIT 23 MAY SteDoCo vs Kloetinge Over 2.5 1–5 HIT 23 MAY Scheveningen vs Lisse Over 2.5 1–3 HIT 23 MAY Rijnvogels vs VVSB BTTS 0–3 MISS 16 MAY ASWH vs Zwaluwen Over 2.5 1–6 HIT 16 MAY VVSB vs GOES Over 2.5 1–0 MISS 16 MAY UDI 19 vs UNA Over 2.5 1–3 HIT 16 MAY TOGB vs Groene Ster Over 2.5 -2% 5–1 HIT 16 MAY Meerssen vs Rijnvogels Over 2.5 -4% 1–1 MISS 16 MAY Kloetinge vs Noordwijk Over 2.5 2–2 HIT 16 MAY Gemert vs SteDoCo Over 2.5 -8% 6–1 HIT