Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday / TOGB vs Groene Ster

TOGB vs Groene Ster Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

TOGB

PPG 1.44 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Groene Ster

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.1%0-22.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.0%1-17.4%1-25.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.0%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-17.4%4+-25.5%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 41.7% 2.40 +25.8%

Draw 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

Away win 24.7% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 54.2% 44.4% 2.25 +21.9%

BTTS 62.7% 70.9% 1.41 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOGB2.4

Groene Ster1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TOGB · PPG 1.44

GROENE STER · PPG 0.63

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

TOGB (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +25.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Groene Ster (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

TOGB face Groene Ster in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOGB a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Groene Ster 25%, so TOGB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for TOGB and 1.5 for Groene Ster (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOGB are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.63 for Groene Ster. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 5-1.

TOGB vs Groene Ster Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Predictions