TOGB vs Groene Ster Prediction & Tips

Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Group B - 33 Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel· Berkel en Rodenrijs Saturday, May 16, 2026 13:30

TOGB PPG 1.44

5-1 MISS

Groene Ster PPG 0.63

Home· +25.8% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +25.8%

Draw 22.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -7.8%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 2.30 EV: -25.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 54.2% Odds: 2.25 +21.9%

BTTS 62.7% Odds: 1.41 -11.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

TOGB

2.39

Groene Ster

1.49

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-2.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=52.4%