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UNA vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

UNA

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meerssen

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.2%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.1%4+-23.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.8% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2✓ 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNA2.1

Meerssen1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNA · PPG 1.00

MEERSSEN · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

UNA (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Meerssen (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UNA face Meerssen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNA a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Meerssen 26%, so UNA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for UNA and 1.6 for Meerssen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNA are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.19 for Meerssen. This match finished 1-2.

UNA vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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