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VVSB vs GOES Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

VVSB

PPG 2.19 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

GOES

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-17.9%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-17.7%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-18.4%4+-24.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 18.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VVSB2.4

GOES1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VVSB · PPG 2.19

GOES · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs P(Home)=60.3%

Win probability 1X2

VVSB (H) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

GOES (A) 18.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

VVSB face GOES in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VVSB a 60% chance, the draw 22% and GOES 18%, so VVSB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for VVSB and 1.0 for GOES (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VVSB are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.13 for GOES. This match finished 1-0.

VVSB vs GOES Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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