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Meerssen vs Rijnvogels Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Meerssen

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rijnvogels

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.7%0-27.9%0-36.2%0-4+6.4%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.5%1-37.5%1-4+7.7%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-25.7%2-34.5%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.5% 30.8% 3.25 -22.0%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 58.7% 55.6% 1.80 +5.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 47.7% 46.1% 2.17 +3.5%

BTTS 59.7% 68.5% 1.46 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 59% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1✓ 8.0%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meerssen1.2

Rijnvogels2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MEERSSEN · PPG 0.50

RIJNVOGELS · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Meerssen (H) 19.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Rijnvogels (A) 58.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meerssen face Rijnvogels in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meerssen a 20% chance, the draw 22% and Rijnvogels 59%, so Rijnvogels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Meerssen and 2.4 for Rijnvogels (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meerssen are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Rijnvogels. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Meerssen vs Rijnvogels Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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