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Groene Ster vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Groene Ster

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ASWH

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.8%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.7%1-18.3%1-26.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.2%4+-24.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 60.6% 1.65 -14.5%

Draw 23.8% 24.4% 4.10 -1.5%

Away win 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 49.5% 43.7% 2.29 +13.4%

BTTS 62.5% 65.8% 1.52 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1✓ 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Groene Ster2.2

ASWH1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GROENE STER · PPG 1.44

ASWH · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Groene Ster (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.5%

ASWH (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Groene Ster face ASWH in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Groene Ster a 52% chance, the draw 24% and ASWH 24%, so Groene Ster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Groene Ster and 1.4 for ASWH (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Groene Ster are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.75 for ASWH. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Groene Ster vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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