Groene Ster vs ASWH Prediction & Tips

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Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Group B - 34 Sportpark Pronsenbroek· Heerlen Saturday, May 23, 2026 13:30

Groene Ster PPG 1.44

3-1 HIT CS3

ASWH PPG 0.75

Over3.5· +13.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.8%

Odds: 1.65 EV: -14.5%

Draw 23.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -1.5%

Away 24.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -4.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 49.5% Odds: 2.29 +13.4%

BTTS 62.5% Odds: 1.52 -5.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Groene Ster

2.20

ASWH

1.45

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-2.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.75)