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GOES vs Gemert Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

GOES

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gemert

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.3%0-27.7%0-35.4%0-4+4.7%1 1-04.3%1-19.1%1-29.6%1-36.8%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.7%2-15.7%2-26.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 52.9% — — —

Over 2.5 62.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.6% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 53% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GOES1.3

Gemert2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOES · PPG 1.13

GEMERT · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

GOES (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gemert (A) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

GOES face Gemert in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GOES a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Gemert 53%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for GOES and 2.1 for Gemert (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GOES are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.88 for Gemert. This match finished 0-0.

GOES vs Gemert Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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