Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday / Gemert vs SteDoCo

Gemert vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Gemert

PPG 1.69 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SteDoCo

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.8%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-18.6%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.4%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-17.1%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 54.1% 1.85 +11.7%

Draw 21.9% 25.6% 3.90 -8.8%

Away win 17.8% 31.3% 3.20 -25.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 46.1% 2.17 -15.8%

BTTS 52.6% 69.9% 1.43 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gemert2.3

SteDoCo0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GEMERT · PPG 1.69

STEDOCO · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Gemert (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +11.7%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.8%

SteDoCo (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gemert face SteDoCo in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gemert a 60% chance, the draw 22% and SteDoCo 18%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gemert and 0.9 for SteDoCo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gemert are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.94 for SteDoCo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 6-1.

Gemert vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Predictions