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ASWH vs Zwaluwen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

ASWH

PPG 0.81 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zwaluwen

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.6%0-26.2%0-34.5%0-4+4.2%1 1-03.7%1-18.2%1-29.1%1-36.7%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.7%2-16.0%2-26.7%2-34.9%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.3%3-13.0%3-23.3%3-32.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 47.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 50.1% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.5%

A 47% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 1–3 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASWH1.5

Zwaluwen2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ASWH · PPG 0.81

ZWALUWEN · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.81) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

ASWH (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zwaluwen (A) 47.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ASWH face Zwaluwen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASWH a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Zwaluwen 47%, so Zwaluwen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ASWH and 2.2 for Zwaluwen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASWH are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.25 for Zwaluwen. This match finished 1-6.

ASWH vs Zwaluwen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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