Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday / Noordwijk vs TOGB

Noordwijk vs TOGB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Noordwijk

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TOGB

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.1%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.5%1-18.5%1-26.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.0%3-16.2%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.2%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.2% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2✓ 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noordwijk2.1

TOGB1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOORDWIJK · PPG 1.88

TOGB · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Noordwijk (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TOGB (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Noordwijk face TOGB in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noordwijk a 51% chance, the draw 24% and TOGB 25%, so Noordwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Noordwijk and 1.6 for TOGB (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noordwijk are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.50 for TOGB. This match finished 1-2.

Noordwijk vs TOGB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Predictions