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Zwaluwen vs Blauw Geel 38 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Zwaluwen

PPG 1.56 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Blauw Geel 38

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.8%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.7%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwaluwen1.8

Blauw Geel 381.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWALUWEN · PPG 1.56

BLAUW GEEL 38 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Zwaluwen (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Blauw Geel 38 (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwaluwen face Blauw Geel 38 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwaluwen a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Blauw Geel 38 27%, so Zwaluwen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zwaluwen and 1.4 for Blauw Geel 38 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwaluwen are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.50 for Blauw Geel 38. This match finished 3-0.

Zwaluwen vs Blauw Geel 38 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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