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Kloetinge vs Noordwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Kloetinge

PPG 2.56 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Noordwijk

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.8%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.9%1-19.7%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.4%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kloetinge2.0

Noordwijk1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KLOETINGE · PPG 2.56

NOORDWIJK · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Kloetinge (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Noordwijk (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kloetinge face Noordwijk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kloetinge a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Noordwijk 24%, so Kloetinge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kloetinge and 1.2 for Noordwijk (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kloetinge are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.81 for Noordwijk. This match finished 2-2.

Kloetinge vs Noordwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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