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CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

CF Pachuca

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guadalajara Chivas

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.6%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 32.8% 3.05 +33.3%

Draw 26.9% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 29.3% 45.9% 2.18 -21.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 39.2% 2.55 +2.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 48.8% 2.05 -33.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Pachuca1.5

Guadalajara Chivas1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CF PACHUCA · PPG 1.26

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CF Pachuca (H) 43.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +33.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Guadalajara Chivas (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Pachuca face Guadalajara Chivas in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Pachuca a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Guadalajara Chivas 29%, so CF Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CF Pachuca and 1.1 for Guadalajara Chivas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Pachuca are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.64 for Guadalajara Chivas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-1.

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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