Today / Mexico - Liga MX / U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 01:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Necaxa

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.9%1-18.6%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.1%4+-23.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 52.4% 1.91 +8.5%

Draw 21.7% 30.3% 3.30 -17.0%

Away win 21.5% 30.3% 3.30 -17.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

BTTS 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 55.6% 1.80 +18.4%

Away O1.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U.N.A.M. - Pumas2.3

Necaxa1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 1.24

NECAXA · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +8.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.0%

Necaxa (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Necaxa in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Necaxa 22%, so U.N.A.M. - Pumas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.1 for Necaxa (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.82 for Necaxa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 1-1.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Predictions