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Cruz Azul vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 03:00

Cruz Azul

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Atlas

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.8%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.7%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.8%3-16.7%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 24.5% 20.0% 5.00 +13.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 57.1% 1.75 +7.1%

Over 3.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

BTTS 60.9% 57.1% 1.75 +6.6%

Home O1.5 57.0% 61.7% 1.62 -7.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 26.7% 3.75 +33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul2.0

Atlas1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 1.82

ATLAS · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Atlas (A) 24.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Atlas in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Atlas 25%, so Cruz Azul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cruz Azul and 1.2 for Atlas (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.62 for Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Cruz Azul vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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